Fill up today, or wait?
A daily Toronto gas price forecast — four signals, one estimated verdict.
Wait if you can — expecting a drop of about 2¢/L by Friday.
−2.0¢/L expected over the next ~3 days · Today's Toronto median: 177.9¢/L
Toronto's weekly cycle (last 90 days)
Lower bars show lower historical weekday medians in the last 90 days. These averages do not guarantee the cheapest day this week; compare recent station reports before filling up.
Why this verdict?
weekly cycle takes ~2.3¢ off.
- Weekly cycle: -2.3¢
- 7d vs 21d trend: -0.1¢
- WTI crude (5d): +0.1¢ — now $96.24 USD/bbl
- wholesale rack (5d): 0.0¢
As of Oct 13, 2026, 8:37 p.m.
What's driving today's call
The predictor blends four signals. Two are local (Toronto's weekly cycle and 7-day trend), two are upstream commodities that pass through to the pump with variable timing.
How the prediction is built
- Weekly cycle (40% weight typically). We compute the median Toronto price for each day of the week from the last 90 days, then ask: "what does the day-of-week pattern say prices should do over the next two days?"
- Trend (20%). 7-day moving average vs 21-day moving average. If the short average is above the long average, prices are climbing — and we project 60% of that move forward over three days.
- WTI crude (20%). Roughly $1/barrel translates to ~0.85¢/L at the Canadian pump, with a 5–10 day lag. We look at the change in the past 5 days.
- Ontario wholesale rack (20%). Pump prices typically follow rack moves within 1–3 days. A rack spike overnight is one of the strongest "fill today" signals.
Each component returns a signed cents-per-litre value. We add them up, classify the total against simple thresholds, and call it. The model is intentionally simple — it's a heuristic, not a black-box ML model.
FAQ
Is there a fixed cheapest weekday in Toronto?
No weekday is guaranteed to be cheapest. The model uses recent weekday medians; compare the current weekly pattern and reported station prices before choosing when to fill.
How accurate is this prediction?
We give you a verdict and a confidence meter (out of 5). The indicator reflects agreement among available signals, the size of the modeled move, and whether commodity inputs are available. It is not a measured probability of forecast accuracy. Treat it as an estimate, not a guarantee — geopolitics and refinery outages can override it.
What's the 'rack price'?
The wholesale price paid by gas stations to fuel terminals — set by major refiners and terminals in Ontario as postings become available. Wholesale changes are one input; retail timing varies by station.
Where does the data come from?
Pump prices: scraped hourly from public Toronto station feeds. WTI crude: free FRED API from the St. Louis Fed (series DCOILWTICO). wholesale rack: Petro-Canada's public daily terminal postings, with NRCan wholesale data as a fallback. All sources are free and open.
Can I get email alerts?
Yes — set up free alerts on our Gas Price Alerts page. Choose a daily 'fill up or wait' email that lands on mornings when prices look set to jump, or a price-drop alert when Toronto's cheapest gas hits a target you pick. Confirm your email once and you're set.
Want the cheapest right now?
The predictor tells you whether to act; this list tells you where.
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