Fill up today, or wait?
A daily Toronto gas price forecast — four signals, one estimated verdict.
Wait if you can — expecting a drop of about 9¢/L by Monday.
−9¢/L expected over the next ~3 days · Today's Toronto median: 182.9¢/L
Toronto's weekly cycle (last 90 days)
Lower bars = cheaper days. In Toronto, Tuesday is typically the cycle low and Wednesday sees the weekly retail spike.
Why this verdict?
weekly Tue/Wed cycle adds ~1.5¢; 7-day average is falling (-1.1¢); WTI crude down over 5 days (-9.0¢ retail impact).
- Weekly cycle: +1.5¢
- 7d vs 21d trend: -1.1¢
- WTI crude (5d): -9.0¢ — now $96.41 USD/bbl
- wholesale rack (5d): 0.0¢
As of Sep 25, 2026, 10:33 p.m.
What's driving today's call
The predictor blends four signals. Two are local (Toronto's weekly cycle and 7-day trend), two are upstream commodities that pass through to the pump with variable timing.
How the prediction is built
- Weekly cycle (40% weight typically). We compute the median Toronto price for each day of the week from the last 90 days, then ask: "what does the day-of-week pattern say prices should do over the next two days?"
- Trend (20%). 7-day moving average vs 21-day moving average. If the short average is above the long average, prices are climbing — and we project 60% of that move forward over three days.
- WTI crude (20%). Roughly $1/barrel translates to ~0.85¢/L at the Canadian pump, with a 5–10 day lag. We look at the change in the past 5 days.
- Ontario wholesale rack (20%). Pump prices typically follow rack moves within 1–3 days. A rack spike overnight is one of the strongest "fill today" signals.
Each component returns a signed cents-per-litre value. We add them up, classify the total against simple thresholds, and call it. The model is intentionally simple — it's a heuristic, not a black-box ML model.
FAQ
Is there a fixed cheapest weekday in Toronto?
No weekday is guaranteed to be cheapest. The model uses recent weekday medians; compare the current weekly pattern and reported station prices before choosing when to fill.
How accurate is this prediction?
We give you a verdict and a confidence meter (out of 5). High confidence means all four signals (weekly cycle, recent trend, WTI crude, wholesale rack) point the same direction. Low confidence means the signals disagree. The indicator is not a measured probability of forecast accuracy. Treat it as an estimate, not a guarantee — geopolitics and refinery outages can override it.
What's the 'rack price'?
The wholesale price paid by gas stations to fuel terminals — set by major refiners and terminals in Ontario as postings become available. Wholesale changes are one input; retail timing varies by station.
Where does the data come from?
Pump prices: scraped hourly from public Toronto station feeds. WTI crude: free FRED API from the St. Louis Fed (series DCOILWTICO). wholesale rack: Petro-Canada's public daily terminal postings, with NRCan wholesale data as a fallback. All sources are free and open.
Can I get email alerts?
Yes — set up free alerts on our Gas Price Alerts page. Choose a daily 'fill up or wait' email that lands on mornings when prices look set to jump, or a price-drop alert when Toronto's cheapest gas hits a target you pick. Confirm your email once and you're set.
Want the cheapest right now?
The predictor tells you whether to act; this list tells you where.
See today's cheapest Toronto stations →Get this verdict by email
Don't want to check every morning? We'll email you only on the days it matters — when prices look set to jump, or when gas drops to a target you choose.
Set up free gas price alerts →